INDUSTRY

AERONAUTICS
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After two difficult years, the aeronautics sector is recovering. Airbus expects to need 39,000 new aircraft by 2040. The American aircraft manufacturer, Boeing, is forecasting a doubling of the world’s commercial aircraft fleet over the next twenty years to 49,000 by 2040.

This forecast is identical to the one made before the outbreak of the Covid-19 pandemic.

Thus, the current crisis would not durably call into question the fundamentals of the world transport growth estimated at 4% per year over the next twenty years. Indeed, airlines will have to gradually renew their fleets and retire the oldest, most fuel-intensive aircraft. Smaller aircraft, such as the A220 and A320 family at Airbus and the 737 family at Boeing, will be in greatest demand, accounting for ¾ of global needs.

Beyond the Covid-19 crisis, which has shaken the entire aviation sector, several factors are pushing companies in the aeronautics sector to reinvent themselves: international competition with the emergence of Chinese aeronautics, societal pressure, environmental issues and climate pressure, and health constraints.

But how to innovate in this traditionally very conservative industry? Companies in the aeronautics sector know how to innovate incrementally, but are more cautious about disruptive innovations. The priority given to air safety, the long cycles and the high cost of projects, encourage caution.

At the same time, airlines are being pushed to invest in newer aircraft, which consume less fuel and are therefore more profitable, and emit less CO2. This race to decarbonize is opening up opportunities for aircraft manufacturers, as shown by the development by Airbus and Boeing of a new concept of aircraft that will burn hydrogen instead of kerosene.

The recent successes of SpaceX and Virgin Galactic have shown that disruptive innovation is possible. Shortening development cycles, finding better coordination between start-ups and traditional companies in the sector, and attracting new investors should allow the aircraft of the future to emerge.

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Support for an aircraft manufacturer wishing to create a community of expertise sharing a common functional language in order to promote consistency and generate synergies on ground test facilities.

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